McKervey Solutions / CCR Academy

GTM and Expansion Strategy

Research summary prepared Oct 24, 2026. Static and read-only. Items marked UNVERIFIED rest on a single source, paywalled summaries, vendor blogs, or estimates. Superscript references (S1, S2 ...) link to the Sources section.

1Executive summary

Stay a process control room training company. Win cement first, then expand along the physics and UI already built.

Recommendation

Stay a process control room trainer. Win cement first (US and Spanish-speaking markets), then expand through kiln and grinding physics. Avoid certified, licensed-operator markets: nuclear, air traffic control and maritime need certified or class-approved simulators, have long sales cycles and are dominated by incumbents. A browser look-alike trainer can only reach them as a classroom or part-task add-on.

Expansion order after cement

  1. 1. Lime and pyro kilns
  2. 2. Minerals processing (grinding first)
  3. 3. Pipelines (PHMSA control room rule)
  4. 4. Power gen (fossil and combined-cycle, partnered)
  5. 5. Selective chemicals and refining units
  • Nuclear, ATC, maritime: partner-only, classroom tier

Base-case revenue (arithmetic in section 4)

~$1.8M
Year 3 (2029) revenue, 45 sites, ~$1.6M ending ARR
Conservative $0.6M / Aggressive $3.6M
~$5.2M
Year 5 (2031) revenue, 130 sites, ~$4.9M ending ARR
Conservative $1.9M / Aggressive $10.5M
Reality check. This is a niche software business, not a slice of a $12.5B simulator market. Every US cement plant at $40K per year adds up to only about $3.9M ARR.S12

L3Harris recommendation

Pursue co-development through Power Systems and Simulation, after a Toolbelt pilot and SOC 2. Today there is an NDA and an early evaluation with a single L3Harris division, with no training or simulation contact.

Top 3 risks

  1. Harden demo security before pilots.
  2. No SSO, per-customer tenants or seat licensing (SimCirrus already ships multi-tenant SSO and a browser OTS with a cement kiln model).S23
  3. Cloud-only delivery meets OT/IT security review, with no SOC 2 Type 2 yet.

3 next moves

  1. Make cement sellable: security hardening, SSO, tenants, plant licensing, 3 to 5 design partners.
  2. Start SOC 2 Type 2.
  3. Land the Toolbelt pilot with the L3Harris division, then ask for an intro to Power Systems and Simulation.

2TAM by vertical

Bottom-up: sites × about $40K per year of software (about $30K for lime and pipelines, about $50K for refining and grid). SAM is the set of sites a browser, non-certified, cloud trainer can credibly sell to. SOM is base-case Year 5 capture. Confidence reflects source quality using the verification legend: Verified, Partial, UNVERIFIED.

TAM by vertical (site count × price)

Striped bars rest on estimated counts or upper bounds. Chemicals is heavily overstated because most facilities lack a continuous-process control room.

Market-report ranges for certification-gated verticals

Published ranges, not site × price. All are UNVERIFIED paywalled summaries. Bar spans the low to high estimate (scale 0 to $4B).

Corrected prior figures

3Expansion order and rationale

Scores run 1 to 5, where 5 is most favorable to the company. Weights: adjacency to current tech 25%, certification barrier (5 = none) 20%, competitive density (5 = sparse) 15%, sales cycle (5 = short) 15%, buyer concentration (5 = few reachable buyers) 10%, regulatory pull for simulators 10%, L3Harris leverage 5%. Scores are judgment from the evidence, not a market measurement.

Regulatory and certification facts behind the scores

Hypothesis test

Hypothesis: mining and minerals, power gen and chemicals are closer adjacencies than nuclear and ATC, which are certification-gated.

Recommended sequence, with gates

4Growth model

Three scenarios over five years. Pick a scenario below, or compare all three. The table shows the arithmetic inputs for each year.

Assumptions

    Worked arithmetic (base case)

    Capture check and sensitivities

      What the model implies for team size

      5Why now: AI and Toolbelt thesis

      The why-now case is real, but it is not unique to us. The edge must come from cement and kiln domain depth (drills, safety gates, MSHA records), AI coaching and scenario authoring speed on Toolbelt, and price and time-to-value (days, not 12 months). Status shows what is proven by outside evidence versus what is claimed or unknown.

      Honest framing. Hours-to-build for CCR Academy on Toolbelt is unknown: build time and cost are not documented. The cost advantage versus a traditional OTS (about $1M, 12 to 18 months) is therefore a claim, not a measured result.

      6L3Harris partnership models

      What L3Harris is now, what the relationship actually is, and which model fits.

      Current state

        L3Harris portfolio facts (2025 to 2026)

        Three models compared

        Recommended path

          Certification gaps

          7Risk register

          Owners are not yet assigned.

          8Self-critique and iteration

          Improvements made in v3

            What would change the recommendation

              Derived from the weaknesses and gates above.

              9Open questions

                10Sources and unverified list

                Unverified items (do not present as fact)

                  Sources

                  Every number above traces to one of these groups through its superscript reference. S40 covers internal working research and assumptions, which are not public.